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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Coming Price Hit, and Volumes Cushion, in Indonesian Trade

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
  • ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
  • Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Recession Revealed... Brace for a Q3 Collapse in GDP Growth in India

  • GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
  • The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
  • The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Try Not to Get Too Carried Away by India's Decent Start to Q3

India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.

The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.

The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Look-Ahead to the Final Bits of EM Asia Activity Data in July

Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.

Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.

Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 July 2022 Indonesia's Q2 Trade was Solid, and Q3 Likely will be as Good as it Gets

Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...

...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.

The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 July 2022 No Spinning the Philippines' May Trade, but the PHP Fall is Overdone

The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...

...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.

The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 May 2022 Expect the Philippines' Flying Start to the Year to Hit a Wall in Q2

The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.

Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.

We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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