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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.
The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.
The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.
Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.
Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.
Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...
...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.
The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.
The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...
...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.
The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.
Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...
...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.
Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.
Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.
We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.
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