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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Public Debt Fell Trivially in 2021, but Consolidation Now is Real

Don’t set store by the reported plunge in Vietnam’s public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021 to a record low...

...Remember that the denominator is inflated; falling external and secured debt remain the key themes.

Fiscal consolidation in the first half of 2022 was sharp, thanks largely to a strong revival in revenue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Look-Ahead to the Final Bits of EM Asia Activity Data in July

Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.

Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.

Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 July 2022 India's Capex Pipeline is Growing, but Beware of Headline Amounts

New capex projects in India continue to recover, but we’re far from convinced the boom times are back.

President Marcos’ historic win saw no immediate spark in business sentiment and investment plans.

The signal from Vietnam’s Q2 BCI for Q3 GDP won’t materialise, but the former is telling the right story.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2022 We're Sticking to our Guns... the BSP will Hold Fire from August

The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.

We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.

A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 June 2022 EM Asia Faces Trivial--but not Non- Zero--Renewed Risks from Covid

Covid is slowly resurfacing on the authorities’ radars in EM Asia, but we see no reason to panic. 

That said, the region arguably faces the biggest black swan risks, due to very low booster coverage. 

Spending growth in the Philippines can’t go back to Duterte-era rates with Diokno’s 3% deficit target. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2022 Expect the RBI and BoT to Shock Markets with 25bp Hikes This Week

We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...

...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.

The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 May 2022 Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam is Flying, but Context Matters Greatly

Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.

All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.

A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 May 2022 India's Economy Stabilised in Q1, but Expect a Further Fall in Growth

GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.

We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.

Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 May 2022 BI's Higher RRR Hikes Should Temper 2022 Rate Expectations

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.

The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...

...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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