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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Don’t set store by the reported plunge in Vietnam’s public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021 to a record low...
...Remember that the denominator is inflated; falling external and secured debt remain the key themes.
Fiscal consolidation in the first half of 2022 was sharp, thanks largely to a strong revival in revenue.
Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.
Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.
A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.
GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.
Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.
The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.
Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.
Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
New capex projects in India continue to recover, but we’re far from convinced the boom times are back.
President Marcos’ historic win saw no immediate spark in business sentiment and investment plans.
The signal from Vietnam’s Q2 BCI for Q3 GDP won’t materialise, but the former is telling the right story.
The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.
We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.
A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.
Covid is slowly resurfacing on the authorities’ radars in EM Asia, but we see no reason to panic.
That said, the region arguably faces the biggest black swan risks, due to very low booster coverage.
Spending growth in the Philippines can’t go back to Duterte-era rates with Diokno’s 3% deficit target.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.
The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.
The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.
We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...
...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.
The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.
Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.
All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.
A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.
GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.
We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.
Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.
The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...
...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.
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