Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
gains
- CPI inflation in India returned to the 6% upper bound of the RBI's target range in January...
- ...Food remains the main culprit and, unfortunately for the MPC, base effects are only part of the issue.
- Petrol prices look poised for a big jump from March, and core pressures remain uncomfortably sticky.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Major crosscurrents will keep ASEAN inflation from swinging wildly—in either direction—this year...
- ...Non-core imported disinflation will butt heads with pandemic-era supply issues yet to be resolved.
- Government policies—both past, present and future—will differentiate trajectories in inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales in Vietnam collapsed in January, but the stage is set for a Tet and VAT-cut bump this month.
- The above-trend rise in exports has given way; surging imports are reassuring in the short run.
- Ignore the blip in Thai retail sales in November; Q4 was solid overall, and an Omicron hit is no certainty.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India's official and unofficial data for Q4 paint markedly different pictures; the latter give hope...
- ...But we are unconvinced, on balance, and will keep to our below-consensus 2.4% GDP growth forecast.
- Merchandise and services trade in Thailand entered 2022 with solid momentum; expect the same in Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts...
- ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron.
- Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The post-Delta rebound in ASEAN manufacturing was robust, with the regional PMI soaring in Q4...
- ...But the end of the honeymoon period is nigh; Omicron is here and new orders are slowing.
- Central banks beware, as we still see no let-up in accelerating upstream and downstream price rises.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam staged a successful V-shaped recovery in Q4, with GDP more than reversing the first Delta hit.
- Household spending was punchy, and Omicron is unlikely to derail the release of pent-up demand.
- Exports look poised for a fast start to 2022; we have raised our full-year GDP growth forecast to 8.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI's "pro-stability" mantra for 2022 implies that it'll also act if things get too hot; watch credit growth.
- A prolonged pause would be pro-cyclical and risk IDR stability; we still see two 25bp rate hikes in H2.
- Retail sales growth is back in the black, and the surge in confidence implies this is no one-off.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
