Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


15 Feb 2022 The Question is When, not if, CPI Inflation will Breach the RBI's Range

  • CPI inflation in India returned to the 6% upper bound of the RBI's target range in January...
  • ...Food remains the main culprit and, unfortunately for the MPC, base effects are only part of the issue.
  • Petrol prices look poised for a big jump from March, and core pressures remain uncomfortably sticky.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Feb 2022 Inflation in ASEAN is in for a Roller- Coaster Ride for the Rest of 2022

  • Major crosscurrents will keep ASEAN inflation from swinging wildly—in either direction—this year...
  • ...Non-core imported disinflation will butt heads with pandemic-era supply issues yet to be resolved.
  • Government policies—both past, present and future—will differentiate trajectories in inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Feb 2022 Vietnam's January was Poor, but it Would be Absurd to Write-Off Q1

  • Retail sales in Vietnam collapsed in January, but the stage is set for a Tet and VAT-cut bump this month.
  • The above-trend rise in exports has given way; surging imports are reassuring in the short run.
  • Ignore the blip in Thai retail sales in November; Q4 was solid overall, and an Omicron hit is no certainty.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Jan 2022 India's Data are all Over the Place... We're Sticking to the Q4 Stall Story

  • India's official and unofficial data for Q4 paint markedly different pictures; the latter give hope...
  • ...But we are unconvinced, on balance, and will keep to our below-consensus 2.4% GDP growth forecast.
  • Merchandise and services trade in Thailand entered 2022 with solid momentum; expect the same in Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Jan 2022 Omicron Poses Short-Term Worries, but BI Normalisation is Coming

  • Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts...
  • ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron.
  • Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Jan 2022 A Strong Finish for ASEAN Industry in 2021, but Warning Signs Abound

  • The post-Delta rebound in ASEAN manufacturing was robust, with the regional PMI soaring in Q4...
  • ...But the end of the honeymoon period is nigh; Omicron is here and new orders are slowing.
  • Central banks beware, as we still see no let-up in accelerating upstream and downstream price rises.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Jan 2022 Junking Zero Covid more than Paid-Off for Vietnam in Q4, Economically

  • Vietnam staged a successful V-shaped recovery in Q4, with GDP more than reversing the first Delta hit.
  • Household spending was punchy, and Omicron is unlikely to derail the release of pent-up demand.
  • Exports look poised for a fast start to 2022; we have raised our full-year GDP growth forecast to 8.0%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 Dec 2021 Bank Indonesia's "Pro-Stability" Stance for 2022 Means Rate Hikes

  • BI's "pro-stability" mantra for 2022 implies that it'll also act if things get too hot; watch credit growth.
  • A prolonged pause would be pro-cyclical and risk IDR stability; we still see two 25bp rate hikes in H2.
  • Retail sales growth is back in the black, and the surge in confidence implies this is no one-off.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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