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Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...
...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.
The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...
...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.
The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.
The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.
The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.
The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.
CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...
...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.
Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.
We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...
...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.
The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.
Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...
...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.
We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.
The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.
India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.
Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.
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