Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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fuel
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
- Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
- ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
- The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
- ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
- A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
- ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
- The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
- ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
- The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
- …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety;
we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
- The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue,
even if demand from China recovers shortly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
- Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
- The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
- Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
- India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
