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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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fuel

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
  • Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Steady, if Uninspiring, Catch-Up in Indonesian Retail Sales Persists

  • Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
  • …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety; 
    we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
  • The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue, 
    even if demand from China recovers shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 July 2022 No Spinning the Philippines' May Trade, but the PHP Fall is Overdone

The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...

...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.

The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2022 Let's Try this Again... Inflation in Thailand has Peaked

CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...

...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.

Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2022 Expect the RBI and BoT to Shock Markets with 25bp Hikes This Week

We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...

...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.

The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 May 2022 Fuel Tax Cuts Buy the RBI Time, not Space, for a Less-Aggressive Cycle

Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...

...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.

We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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