Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

forecast

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 May 2022 Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam is Flying, but Context Matters Greatly

Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.

All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.

A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 May 2022 Faster Inflation and a Higher Terminal RBI Rate are in the Pipeline

We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.

The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.

We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Mar 2022 The BSP has Just Made it Harder to Justify Normalisation This Year

  • The BSP raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 4.3%, which is too punchy, despite the stickiness in oil.
  • The bar for normalisation is higher than above- target CPI; second-round effects will matter more.
  • Thailand's exports rebounded respectably in February, but momentum is clearly ebbing from Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Mar 2022 Fundamental Reasons Why EM Asia Central Banks are in No Major Rush

  • Central banks in EM Asia have no choice but to up their CPI outlook , but we expect no rush to hike.
  • They have time on their side, thanks to the absence of excess liquidity and lingering job market slack.
  • We expect the BSP to stand pat on Thursday, as well as only a modest rise in inflation forecasts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Mar 2022 Thailand's Government is Fighting Inflation, and Then Some

  • Thailand's response to rising oil prices is strong; we've lowered our 2022 inflation forecast to 2.2%...
  • ...But further fiscal consolidation will have to wait until 2023, with the gap likely to stay at 5% of GDP.
  • Industrial production in India remains lacklustre, which is good news for the mostly dovish RBI.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Mar 2022 Far Too Soon to Say that Inflation will Threaten Filipino Consumers

  • Retail sales in the Philippines mostly brushed off the Omicron wave in January; the catch-up continues.
  • We have raised our average inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.5%, still a slowdown from 2021.
  • The renewed squeeze from oil prices will fade after Q2; and it's a good thing Filipinos prefer rice.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Feb 2022 Thailand Ends 2021 Strongly, but Crosscurrents are Aplenty in 2022

  • Thailand's Q4 GDP report easily beat expectations, with growth jumping to +1.9%, from -0.2% in Q3.
  • We see no Omicron pinch to consumption in Q1, but household spending likely will struggle this year.
  • A soft landing in export growth remains on the cards, though inventories will go from hero to zero.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Feb 2022 Indonesia is Where All the Action is for the Auto Industry in ASEAN

  • Vehicle sales in ASEAN rebounded partially in 2021, but this was all mostly thanks to policy in Indonesia.
  • Production is recovering quickly and is back to pre-Covid levels, suggesting easing chip shortages.
  • Expectations for Thailand's Q4 GDP are either overly conservative or the monthly data are lying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 Feb 2022 The BSP Nods to Normalisation, but the Waiting Game will be Long

  • The BSP held rates yesterday, but said for the first time since Covid that it's looking at normalisation.
  • We are sticking to our below-consensus forecast for no hikes this year; Mr. Diokno set a very high bar.
  • Slack defines this economy, more than most, and we see no chance of inflation breaching the target.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Feb 2022 BI Shouldn't Lose Much Sleep Over the Size of the Fed Hike in March

  • BI is becoming more worried about imminent Fed hikes, but currency stability looks secure...
  • ...The IDR is close to fair value, foreigners hold only a small share of bonds, and FX reserves are ample.
  • We'll be upgrading our Q4 growth forecast for India, but the IP data broadly show an end-year stall.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Feb 2022 The RBI isn't Dovish... It's In Denial, at Best, or Delusional, at Worst

  • The RBI defied the consensus for the start of some normalisation; its worries over inflation are fading.
  • Don't count on food prices cooperating with the MPC's forecasts, which look overly optimistic.
  • The only way forward for already-stubborn core inflation is up, jarring with the MPC's nonchalance.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Feb 2022 Why We Continue to Think that the BoT will Hike this Year, Eventually

  • We continue to believe that the BoT will normalise policy this year, potentially as early as June.
  • The high level of household debt eventually will steal the Bank's attention, as will above-target inflation...
  • ...Which looks set to last longer than the MPC expects; price pressures are broadening out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Feb 2022 Indonesia's Robust Q4 is a One-Off, but 2022 Growth is in Good Hands

  • Indonesia's Q4 GDP beat expectations, but statistical noise flattered the quarterly picture.
  • The front-loading of spending ahead of the April VAT hike probably will override any Omicron hit.
  • Investment is set for a bumper year ahead, with a likely soft landing in export growth posing no threat.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 Feb 2022 Expect Indonesia's Q4 GDP to Miss, After Upside Surprises in EM Asia

  • Indonesia's Q4 GDP likely will miss expectations, which probably are relying too much on trade.
  • A rebound in household spending from the Delta squeeze will be the main driver quarter-on-quarter.
  • Overall, we look for only a modest rise in the year- over-year growth rate to 4.0%, from 3.5% in Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Feb 2022 Some of India's Budget Math is Strange, to Say the Least

  • India's FY2022/23 budget shows only a modest consolidation of the deficit, to 6.4% of GDP...

    ...But we still see every chance that it narrows below this level in FY2021/22, assuming a "normal" Q1.

    Divestment targets are finally becoming realistic, and the jury still is out on Modi's capex credentials.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 Jan 2022 Why we're not Celebrating the Philippines' Consensus-Beating Q4

  • GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q4, though the headlines are misleading.
  • Disconcertingly, capex is stalling well below the pre-Covid level; election uncertainties won't help.
  • Consumption was solid and Omicron is unlikely to register in Q1, but watch the slowing vax rate.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Jan 2022 Brace for Some--Surface--Volatility in Vietnam's January Data Dump

  • Expect a spike in Vietnam's YTD retail sales growth print for January, thanks to the December leap.
  • The mobility data have yet to show any Delta 2.0 or Omicron anxieties, keeping catch-up growth intact.
  • The trade surplus likely leapt to a 17-month high, as volatile Tet effects take over in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Emerging Asia Documents

Emerging Asia Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence