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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

food prices

15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor 8%-Plus Inflation in the Philippines is Unlikely; Don't Worry About Core

  • CPI inflation in the Philippines jumped to a 14-year high in October, all but ensuring another 75bp hike.
  • The jump in food inflation likely was a one-off; base effects will now help and global gains are still fading.
  • The BSP’s concerns over “broadening” pressures are misplaced, as the core gauge is misleading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's Commodities Boost is Fading, but Q3 Trade was Solid

  • Export growth in Indonesia slowed sharply to 20% year-over-year in September, a 19-month low...
  • ...This slump still has plenty of room to run—well into 2023—as the lift from commodity prices unwinds.
  • We reckon the GDP boost from trade continued in Q3; our 7% above-consensus forecast stands.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Get Excited--At All--if Vietnam's Q3 Beats Expectations

  • We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
  • The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
  • The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Recession Revealed... Brace for a Q3 Collapse in GDP Growth in India

  • GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
  • The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
  • The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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