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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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food inflation

12 Jan 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Sticking to Our BSP Pause Call, Despite Medalla's Vague Rhetoric

  • Reports this week suggest that another BSP rate hike in February of at least 50bp is guaranteed...
  • ...But Governor Medalla was notably less committal than in the recent past; we’re still expecting a pause.
  • The Q4 GDP data before the Board meeting will be crucial, if our below-consensus 4.6% call is right.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The SBV's Higher 2022 Loan Quota is About Expectations Management

  • The SBV’s move to increase the 2022 credit growth quota for more banks to 16% is largely symbolic.
  • Sticky core inflation alone is unlikely to force the RBI’s hand into another rate hike in February.
  • The jobless rate in the Philippines is now below the pre-pandemic low, but the devil is in the details.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor China's Lockdowns Pose no Big Threat to Disinflation in EM Asia

Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...

...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.

Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Soon-to-be Sticky Inflation Sets Up a Tight November Vote for the BoT

  • Thailand’s fast disinflation looks set to stall, for now; we still see a BoT hold this month, but it’ll be close.
  • The Philippines’ volume of net sales index remained firm in September, but don’t rely on it for Q3 GDP.
  • The jobless rate still is struggling to return to the pre-Covid level, despite sky-high participation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor 8%-Plus Inflation in the Philippines is Unlikely; Don't Worry About Core

  • CPI inflation in the Philippines jumped to a 14-year high in October, all but ensuring another 75bp hike.
  • The jump in food inflation likely was a one-off; base effects will now help and global gains are still fading.
  • The BSP’s concerns over “broadening” pressures are misplaced, as the core gauge is misleading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Conservative Expectations for Indonesia's Q3 GDP Need a Rethink

  • The consensus for Indonesia’s Q3 GDP appears to be ignoring Delta base effects; we see a punchy 7%.
  • CPI inflation surprised to the downside in October, opening the door for a smaller BI hike this month.
  • India’s industrial headlines are showing signs of an upturn, but the devil is in the details.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Still Waiting for Signs of a U-Turn in Slumping Vietnamese Exports

  • Vietnam’s exports continue to slide, falling well below the trend; no signs of a bounce from imports.
  • Ignore double-digit retail sales growth; the level is stagnant and inflation will only worsen.
  • Thailand’s final pre-Q3 GDP data dump all but confirms our 4.4% year-over-year forecast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Rupiah-Defensive Hike by BI, but the Currency Needs Minimal Help

  • Bank Indonesia raised the seven-day reverse repo rate by 50bp, to 4.75%, in line with expectations...
  • ...But it remains firm that such big moves won’t be the norm; we expect a return to 25bp next month.
  • BI’s concerns over inflation have eased, and we reckon the IDR poses little threat to the outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Peak in Thai Inflation is in...Coming Next, the U-Turn in Food

  • Inflation in Thailand plunged to 6.4% in September, thanks mainly to a statistical quirk in utilities...
  • ...But food disinflation will soon take hold in a big way, ensuring a sustained drop in the headline rate.
  • Philippine inflation rose further last month, to 6.9%, but growth will soon be a bigger issue for the BSP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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