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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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disinflation

9 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Soon-to-be Sticky Inflation Sets Up a Tight November Vote for the BoT

  • Thailand’s fast disinflation looks set to stall, for now; we still see a BoT hold this month, but it’ll be close.
  • The Philippines’ volume of net sales index remained firm in September, but don’t rely on it for Q3 GDP.
  • The jobless rate still is struggling to return to the pre-Covid level, despite sky-high participation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The RBI's Latest Surveys Give More Reassurance than Warning Signs

  • Inflation expectations in India remain high, but stable, despite multiple pressures this year.
  • The mismatch between demand and supply is closing; further disinflation still lies ahead.
  • The PMIs for Q3 show a clear softening in activity; don’t bother with their rosy year-over-year signal.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Peak in Thai Inflation is in...Coming Next, the U-Turn in Food

  • Inflation in Thailand plunged to 6.4% in September, thanks mainly to a statistical quirk in utilities...
  • ...But food disinflation will soon take hold in a big way, ensuring a sustained drop in the headline rate.
  • Philippine inflation rose further last month, to 6.9%, but growth will soon be a bigger issue for the BSP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Q2 was a Real Turning Point for the Revival in ASEAN Tourism

Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.

Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.

We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI Surveys Suggest Diminishing Urgency for Aggressive Rate Hikes

Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.

Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.

Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2022 We're Sticking to our Guns... the BSP will Hold Fire from August

The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.

We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.

A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 June 2022 The Ceiling for Non-Core Inflation in the Philippines is on the Horizon

CPI inflation in the Philippines breached the 5% mark in May for the first time since 2018...

...Food prices largely were to blame, but June should see the final leg up in food inflation.

We have raised our average CPI forecast for 2022 to 4.8%, but still see only one more rate hike this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2022 Let's Try this Again... Inflation in Thailand has Peaked

CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...

...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.

Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 May 2022 Fuel Tax Cuts Buy the RBI Time, not Space, for a Less-Aggressive Cycle

Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...

...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.

We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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