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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Thailand’s customs trade deficit fell to just $597M in October, thanks to still-helpful seasonal effects...
...This masked an immediate reversal of the unsustainable bounce in exports in September.
Falling imports—in nominal and real terms—likely will drive the “improvement” in the trade balance.
Don’t set store by the reported plunge in Vietnam’s public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021 to a record low...
...Remember that the denominator is inflated; falling external and secured debt remain the key themes.
Fiscal consolidation in the first half of 2022 was sharp, thanks largely to a strong revival in revenue.
Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...
...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.
The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.
Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...
...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.
Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.
Covid is slowly resurfacing on the authorities’ radars in EM Asia, but we see no reason to panic.
That said, the region arguably faces the biggest black swan risks, due to very low booster coverage.
Spending growth in the Philippines can’t go back to Duterte-era rates with Diokno’s 3% deficit target.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.
We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.
Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.
The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...
...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.
The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.
India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.
Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...
...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.
A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.
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