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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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deficit

29 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's Shrinking Trade Deficit is Less Exciting than it Appears

Thailand’s customs trade deficit fell to just $597M in October, thanks to still-helpful seasonal effects...

...This masked an immediate reversal of the unsustainable bounce in exports in September.

Falling imports—in nominal and real terms—likely will drive the “improvement” in the trade balance.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor India's H1 FY2022/23 Fiscal Data are Sound, but Flexibility is Limited

  • India’s budget deficit still looks on track to hit this fiscal year’s 6.4% of GDP target, if not to better it...
  • ...Underspending, despite this year’s acute burdens, and the post-Covid revenue pop are both helping.
  • Remittances in the Philippines are still soaring in peso terms, but 2023 will be a year of slowdown.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Export Growth is Fast Losing Support Left and Right

  • Indonesian export growth fell to a 20-month low of 12.3% in October, and more downside is ahead...
  • ...The unwinding of the commodities boom is far from over, and Chinese demand is now softening.
  • The rise in India’s trade deficit in October is a minor and brief setback; weak flows are the main issue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
  • Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The RBI Risks Policy Overkill if it Doesn't Pivot in December

  • The RBI stuck to its 50bp guns on Friday, but dissent is bubbling and a December pivot is likely...
  • ...Inflation should continue to undershoot the MPC’s forecasts, and growth is not as strong as it thinks.
  • Indonesia’s 2.8% deficit forecast for 2023 is on the high side; lots of space for inflation-fighting moves.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Coming Price Hit, and Volumes Cushion, in Indonesian Trade

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
  • ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
  • Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Public Debt Fell Trivially in 2021, but Consolidation Now is Real

Don’t set store by the reported plunge in Vietnam’s public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021 to a record low...

...Remember that the denominator is inflated; falling external and secured debt remain the key themes.

Fiscal consolidation in the first half of 2022 was sharp, thanks largely to a strong revival in revenue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 July 2022 No Spinning the Philippines' May Trade, but the PHP Fall is Overdone

The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...

...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.

The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 June 2022 EM Asia Faces Trivial--but not Non- Zero--Renewed Risks from Covid

Covid is slowly resurfacing on the authorities’ radars in EM Asia, but we see no reason to panic. 

That said, the region arguably faces the biggest black swan risks, due to very low booster coverage. 

Spending growth in the Philippines can’t go back to Duterte-era rates with Diokno’s 3% deficit target. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 May 2022 India's Economy Stabilised in Q1, but Expect a Further Fall in Growth

GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.

We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.

Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 May 2022 BI's Higher RRR Hikes Should Temper 2022 Rate Expectations

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.

The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...

...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2022 BSP Policy has Turned, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike This Year

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...

...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.

A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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