Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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16 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Coming Price Hit, and Volumes Cushion, in Indonesian Trade

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
  • ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
  • Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Keeping Calm and Carrying On Amid the Pressure on Currencies

Central banks continue to put a brave face on the FX plunge, which is by no means excessive...

...The dollar has strengthened more than EM Asian FX has weakened; reserves are still a huge weapon.

Currencies are still rising in REER terms, leaving the window open for a sharp nominal retracement.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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