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Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.
Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.
The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.
India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.
The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.
The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...
...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.
The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.
The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.
Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.
WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
India’s complete PMIs for Q2 show an improvement in momentum, with services in the driver’s seat...
...But they signal “just” 12% GDP growth, well below expectations; we’re not budging on our Q2 forecast.
The forward-looking gauges suggest momentum will carry over to Q3, though price rises remain hot.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
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