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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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cpi

15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor 8%-Plus Inflation in the Philippines is Unlikely; Don't Worry About Core

  • CPI inflation in the Philippines jumped to a 14-year high in October, all but ensuring another 75bp hike.
  • The jump in food inflation likely was a one-off; base effects will now help and global gains are still fading.
  • The BSP’s concerns over “broadening” pressures are misplaced, as the core gauge is misleading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: August IP & September CPI, India

  • In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: July IP & August CPI, India

  • In one line: Still lining up for an RBI pivot later this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: June IP & July CPI, India

  • In one line: Industry had a stellar Q2, the y/y noise aside; food inflation sees a material slowdown.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Try Not to Get Too Carried Away by India's Decent Start to Q3

India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.

The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.

The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI Continues to Move the Policy Goalposts, but will Hike, Eventually

Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...

...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.

The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 July 2022 Medalla Meddles with the Calendar, with a--Likely--One-and-Done Hike

The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.

Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.

WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: May IP & June CPI, India

  • In one line: Ignore the spike in IP growth, May was forgetful; the CPI case for smaller RBI hikes is growing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 July 2022 India's Q2 PMIs were Solid, but are They Strong Enough

India’s complete PMIs for Q2 show an improvement in momentum, with services in the driver’s seat...

...But they signal “just” 12% GDP growth, well below expectations; we’re not budging on our Q2 forecast.

The forward-looking gauges suggest momentum will carry over to Q3, though price rises remain hot.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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