Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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cpi
- In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Hot, but the details give reason for calm.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: IP growth remains lacklustre, Diwali effects aside; more space for the RBI to consider a February pause.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Reports this week suggest that another BSP rate hike in February of at least 50bp is guaranteed...
- ...But Governor Medalla was notably less committal than in the recent past; we’re still expecting a pause.
- The Q4 GDP data before the Board meeting will be crucial, if our below-consensus 4.6% call is right.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
- ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
- WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in the Philippines jumped to a 14-year high in October, all but ensuring another 75bp hike.
- The jump in food inflation likely was a one-off; base effects will now help and global gains are still fading.
- The BSP’s concerns over “broadening” pressures are misplaced, as the core gauge is misleading.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
- ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
- A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still lining up for an RBI pivot later this month.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
- We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
- India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
- ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
- Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
