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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core cpi

18 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look Out for a Simultaneous Pivot by BI and the BSP in December

  • BI and the BSP yesterday raised their rates by 50bp and 75bp, respectively, in line with expectations.
  • The governors of both central banks left some breadcrumbs for a potential pivot to smaller hikes...
  • ...BI is sounding more reassured about inflation, and the BSP’s anxiety over the core rate is misplaced.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor 8%-Plus Inflation in the Philippines is Unlikely; Don't Worry About Core

  • CPI inflation in the Philippines jumped to a 14-year high in October, all but ensuring another 75bp hike.
  • The jump in food inflation likely was a one-off; base effects will now help and global gains are still fading.
  • The BSP’s concerns over “broadening” pressures are misplaced, as the core gauge is misleading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, September

  • In one line: A respectable bounce, but beware of extrapolating this to headline IP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: August IP & September CPI, India

  • In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: July IP & August CPI, India

  • In one line: Still lining up for an RBI pivot later this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: June IP & July CPI, India

  • In one line: Industry had a stellar Q2, the y/y noise aside; food inflation sees a material slowdown.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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