EM Asia Datanote: Consumer Prices, India, October

• In one line: Food inflation turns to friend from foe.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor No Clear Signs of Flood-Related Damage in Thailand's Sep. Surveys

• Thai industrial growth will collapse in September, but the ongoing floods have little to do with it.
• The recovery in consumer confidence is unaffected, as it still signals a healthy floor for spending growth.
• WPI inflation in India continues to slow sharply, thanks in large part to waning food price pressures.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Steady, if Uninspiring, Catch-Up in Indonesian Retail Sales Persists

• Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
• …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety; 
  we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
• The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue, 
  even if demand from China recovers shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

• Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
• Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
• India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia