Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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central banks

18 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look Out for a Simultaneous Pivot by BI and the BSP in December

  • BI and the BSP yesterday raised their rates by 50bp and 75bp, respectively, in line with expectations.
  • The governors of both central banks left some breadcrumbs for a potential pivot to smaller hikes...
  • ...BI is sounding more reassured about inflation, and the BSP’s anxiety over the core rate is misplaced.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Public Debt Fell Trivially in 2021, but Consolidation Now is Real

Don’t set store by the reported plunge in Vietnam’s public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021 to a record low...

...Remember that the denominator is inflated; falling external and secured debt remain the key themes.

Fiscal consolidation in the first half of 2022 was sharp, thanks largely to a strong revival in revenue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Keeping Calm and Carrying On Amid the Pressure on Currencies

Central banks continue to put a brave face on the FX plunge, which is by no means excessive...

...The dollar has strengthened more than EM Asian FX has weakened; reserves are still a huge weapon.

Currencies are still rising in REER terms, leaving the window open for a sharp nominal retracement.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 May 2022 BI's Higher RRR Hikes Should Temper 2022 Rate Expectations

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.

The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...

...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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Emerging Asia Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence