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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

capex

1 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Recession Revealed... Brace for a Q3 Collapse in GDP Growth in India

  • GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
  • The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
  • The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 July 2022 Medalla Meddles with the Calendar, with a--Likely--One-and-Done Hike

The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.

Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.

WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 July 2022 No Spinning the Philippines' May Trade, but the PHP Fall is Overdone

The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...

...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.

The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 July 2022 India's Capex Pipeline is Growing, but Beware of Headline Amounts

New capex projects in India continue to recover, but we’re far from convinced the boom times are back.

President Marcos’ historic win saw no immediate spark in business sentiment and investment plans.

The signal from Vietnam’s Q2 BCI for Q3 GDP won’t materialise, but the former is telling the right story.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 June 2022 India's Solid Start to 2022 will be Near Impossible to Sustain

GDP growth in India beat expectations marginally in Q1, moderating merely to 4.1%, from 5.4% in Q4.

Capex drove the q/q bounce, but disappointment lies ahead, with signs pointing to a cyclical slump.

Growth likely will pop in Q2, thanks largely to base effects, but the oil squeeze will result in a Q3 crash.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 May 2022 India's Economy Stabilised in Q1, but Expect a Further Fall in Growth

GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.

We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.

Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 May 2022 Thailand's Q1 was Solid, but the Recovery will Now be More Fragile

Thailand’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, with year-over-year growth rising to 2.2%, from 1.8%.

We expect a more pronounced acceleration in Q2, solely on the back of the comeback in tourism...

...The recovery, overall, will be more fragile going forward, as external and domestic demand ebbs.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 May 2022 Expect the Philippines' Flying Start to the Year to Hit a Wall in Q2

The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.

Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.

We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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