- In one line: A solid finish, but the damage to Q3 is done.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A respectable bounce, but beware of extrapolating this to headline IP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports rose in September for the first time in months, but not enough to stop a trade hit to GDP…
- …And in spite of the revival in tourism; we have cut our Q3 GDP forecast to a below-consensus 4.4%.
- The SBV hiked by another 100bp to shore up the VND, compelling us to cut our 2023 GDP forecast.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: DM demand is stabilising, but Q3 was abysmal for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The assistance from oil prices is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Reassuring, after September’s CPI print.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The last big move, and the penultimate hike in the RBI’s cycle
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the headline spike, Vietnamese industry and services cooled in Q3
The September turn in sales growth is real, albeit from a higher peak in reality
Net trade was one of the biggest culprits in Q3
Delta-era base effects are now afflicting the inflation picture
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The misery in Thai exports continues, but stability is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
- ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
- The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
- The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
- The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Seasonality and oil crosscurrents drive a jump in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
- ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
- The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
- ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
- The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still an uninspiring recovery in Indonesian sales growth
Philippine two-way trade hits a sudden stop at the start of Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Food and transport inflation in the Philippines have turned
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still no nervousness in ASEAN manufacturing, but stocks are rising fast
Indian services regain momentum quickly, after a soft start to Q3
Surely, this should be the peak in Thai inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
