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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

September

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, September

  • In one line: A respectable bounce, but beware of extrapolating this to headline IP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Reassuring Finish to Q3 for Thai Trade, but it will Hit GDP Massively

  • Thai exports rose in September for the first time in months, but not enough to stop a trade hit to GDP…
  • …And in spite of the revival in tourism; we have cut our Q3 GDP forecast to a below-consensus 4.4%.
  • The SBV hiked by another 100bp to shore up the VND, compelling us to cut our 2023 GDP forecast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Thailand, September

  • In one line: DM demand is stabilising, but Q3 was abysmal for exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September

  • In one line: The assistance from oil prices is far from over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: August IP & September CPI, India

  • In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 September 2022

The last big move, and the penultimate hike in the RBI’s cycle

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 September 2022

Ignore the headline spike, Vietnamese industry and services cooled in Q3
The September turn in sales growth is real, albeit from a higher peak in reality
Net trade was one of the biggest culprits in Q3
Delta-era base effects are now afflicting the inflation picture

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26 September 2022

The misery in Thai exports continues, but stability is around the corner

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Get Excited--At All--if Vietnam's Q3 Beats Expectations

  • We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
  • The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
  • The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 September 2022

Seasonality and oil crosscurrents drive a jump in Indonesia’s trade surplus

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 September 2022

Still an uninspiring recovery in Indonesian sales growth
Philippine two-way trade hits a sudden stop at the start of Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 September 2022

Still no nervousness in ASEAN manufacturing, but stocks are rising fast
Indian services regain momentum quickly, after a soft start to Q3
Surely, this should be the peak in Thai inflation

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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