EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, February

• In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December

• In one line: A quiet Christmas.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, January

• In one line: Hot, but the details give reason for calm.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, December

• In one line: A reversal in Diwali effects; industry is now a two-speed sector.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, December

• In one line: A punchy, but narrow, finish to 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November

• In one line: Finally, some signs of life.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, December

• In one line: Ignore the headline growth rates for December, but Q4 was grim in totality.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: November IP & December CPI, India

• In one line: IP growth remains lacklustre, Diwali effects aside; more space for the RBI to consider a February pause.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Jan 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Sticking to Our BSP Pause Call, Despite Medalla's Vague Rhetoric

• Reports this week suggest that another BSP rate hike in February of at least 50bp is guaranteed...
• ...But Governor Medalla was notably less committal than in the recent past; we’re still expecting a pause.
• The Q4 GDP data before the Board meeting will be crucial, if our below-consensus 4.6% call is right.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 December 2022

India’s trivial bounce in exports, and damning decline in non-oil imports

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 December 2022

An increasingly poor finish to 2022 for Indonesian trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 December 2022

The good news on Indian inflation keeps on coming

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 December 2022

The good and bad of the Philippines' smallest deficit in 14 months

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: October IP & November CPI, India

• In one line: The RBI’s hiking cycle is over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 December 2022

Catch-up growth is failing Indonesian retail sales

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 December 2022

The RBI pivot is here… and actions speak louder than words
Food disinflation is now taking hold of Thailand’s headline rate
Double-digit sales growth won’t be the norm in the Philippines next year

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 December 2022

Food inflation remains hot, but that won’t stop a BSP pivot

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 December 2022

Indian services are heading into 2023 with renewed energy

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2022

ASEAN industry is losing momentum rapidly, heading into 2023
Price pressures in Indian manufacturing are back to square one
Food disinflation in Indonesia remains the gift that keeps giving

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 November 2022

Vietnamese trade in November wasn't as grim as the headlines suggest
Consumers finally are showing signs of life
Inflation will rise more sharply soon, as transport disinflation has bottomed-out

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia