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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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May

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI Surveys Suggest Diminishing Urgency for Aggressive Rate Hikes

Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.

Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.

Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Try Not to Get Too Carried Away by India's Decent Start to Q3

India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.

The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.

The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Look-Ahead to the Final Bits of EM Asia Activity Data in July

Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.

Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.

Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 July 2022 Indonesia's Q2 Trade was Solid, and Q3 Likely will be as Good as it Gets

Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...

...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.

The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 July 2022 Medalla Meddles with the Calendar, with a--Likely--One-and-Done Hike

The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.

Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.

WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 July 2022 No Spinning the Philippines' May Trade, but the PHP Fall is Overdone

The Philippines' trade deficit fell to a new low in May, with exports sagging and imports outperforming...

...We see no reason to cheer the latter, as it is being driven mainly by commodity price effects.

The window to call time on the peso’s plunge is coming, as it’s looking overdone against the REER.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: May IP & June CPI, India

  • In one line: Ignore the spike in IP growth, May was forgetful; the CPI case for smaller RBI hikes is growing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 July 2022 The Worst is Over for Indonesian Retail Sales Growth in 2022

Retail sales growth in Indonesia crashed to 2.9% year-over-year in May, the worst since the Delta hit...

...But base effects and improving confidence should see a swift—and sustainable—return to fast growth.

A return to pre-Covid unemployment is a matter of when, not if, looking at the highs in job expectations.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 July 2022 Thai Consumers Wave Goodbye to Omicron; No Inflation Hit to See, Yet

Retail sales growth in Thailand bounced strongly in April, with Q2 likely to see faster double-digit prints.

Reopening stimulus largely is over—locally—but tourist dollars look poised for a near-vertical leap.

We’re keeping to our above-consensus 2022 GDP forecasts; the lagged inflation hit is a 2023 problem.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2022 We're Sticking to our Guns... the BSP will Hold Fire from August

The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.

We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.

A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

  • In one line: A somewhat welcome drop to a record deficit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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