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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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March

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 June 2022 Indonesian Retail Sales are Sitting Pretty, for Bad and Good Reasons

Retail sales growth in Indonesia slipped trivially in April; Ramadan demand was as strong as last year.

More broadly, sales are still playing catch-up, and inflation isn’t as painful, unlike in most of EM Asia.

Confidence is resurging, pointing to upside risks, though the job market recovery is incomplete.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2022 Let's Try this Again... Inflation in Thailand has Peaked

CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...

...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.

Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March

  • In one line: Expect a fast, albeit fragile, U-turn from the Omicron pinch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 May 2022 India's Economy Stabilised in Q1, but Expect a Further Fall in Growth

GDP growth in India likely slowed to 3.4% in Q1, masking stability at the margins after a poor Q4.

We expect capex and trade to drive the quarterly bounce, while consumption stayed mostly firm.

Try not to lose sleep over the collapse in Thailand’s trade balance in April; ASEAN demand is reviving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2022 BSP Policy has Turned, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike This Year

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...

...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.

A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 May 2022 Thailand's Q1 was Solid, but the Recovery will Now be More Fragile

Thailand’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, with year-over-year growth rising to 2.2%, from 1.8%.

We expect a more pronounced acceleration in Q2, solely on the back of the comeback in tourism...

...The recovery, overall, will be more fragile going forward, as external and domestic demand ebbs.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: March IP & April CPI, India

  • In one line: The door is open for a quick successive hike in June.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2022 A Clear Philippine Election Result will Matter Most for Markets

The likely election of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as the Philippine president shouldn't spook markets...

...A smooth transition matters most; gridlock due to a contested result is the worst-case scenario.

Any future administration will have to shelve reform, as repairing the Covid damage is far from over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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