Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Steady, if Uninspiring, Catch-Up in Indonesian Retail Sales Persists

  • Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
  • …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety; 
    we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
  • The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue, 
    even if demand from China recovers shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

  • In one line: Still no noticeable and persistent hit from high inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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Emerging Asia Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence