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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

  • In one line: The end of the base-effect boost is just around the corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: July IP & August CPI, India

  • In one line: Still lining up for an RBI pivot later this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Steady, if Uninspiring, Catch-Up in Indonesian Retail Sales Persists

  • Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
  • …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety; 
    we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
  • The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue, 
    even if demand from China recovers shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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