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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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India WPI inflation

13 May 2022 Expect the Philippines' Flying Start to the Year to Hit a Wall in Q2

The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.

Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.

We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: March IP & April CPI, India

  • In one line: The door is open for a quick successive hike in June.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 May 2022 To the RBI... This is What Happens When You Fall Behind the Curve

The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...

...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.

The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 May 2022 Trade in Vietnam has Yet to Flinch in the Face of Ukraine and China Hits

Vietnam got off to a good start to Q2, with trade remaining resilient, but consumers remain absent.

Indonesia's U-turn to a stricter palm oil ban will hurt more in the short run, but the hit won't last as long.

The rise in Thailand's diesel price cap probably will be a one-off; in any case, CPI inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Apr 2022 Thai Exports End Q1 with a Bang, Likely Muting the Trade Hit to GDP

Thai exports end Q1 solidly, keeping the recovery chugging, despite a naturally soft start to 2022.

Remittances in the Philippines continue to lose momentum, with growth driven narrowly by the U.S.

The continued recovery in business sentiment in Vietnam suggests upside risks to Q2 GDP growth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 Apr 2022 Bank Indonesia's Forecast Revisions Reveal an Unspoken Victory Lap

They won't say it out loud, but BI believes with reason that the war is assisting the economy.

Exports ended Q1 with a bang, thanks to the fresh commodities lift, but the GDP trade boost is real.

The March leap in WPI inflation in India will make it much easier for the RBI to start hiking rates in June.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Apr 2022 No Price Relief in Sight for the RBI, with Surveys Still Full of Red Flags

An upshift in core inflation in India remains on the table, with sweeping price hikes still in the pipeline.

Plus, capacity utilisation likely is already above- average, and inflation expectations continue to rise.

To be sure, the risk of runaway inflation is minimal, especially with firms sitting on a lot of inventories.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 Apr 2022 An Early Look at India and Indonesia's Trade Data over Easter

India's final March trade data will sound alarm bells; exports are peaking and oil is squeezing demand.

We look for an unexpected drop in WPI inflation for March, as gravity overrides the lagged Ukraine lift.

Expect to see early signs of the fresh commodities lift in Indonesian March trade, but China is a risk.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Apr 2022 India's Q1 Omicron Hit was Trivial, but GDP Growth Likely Fell Further

India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...

...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.

The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Apr 2022 Now is Not the Time for the BoT and the BSP to Panic

CPI inflation moved further away from the 3% upper bound of the BoT's target range in March...

...But sustained disinflation remains around the corner, even if the price cap on diesel is loosened.

The risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines is minimal, despite the surprise jump to 4% in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February

  • In one line: A narrow headline rise, but clearly moving on from the Q4 stall.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Mar 2022 The BoT's 2022 CPI Forecast is too High, but Hikes are Still on the Way

  • The BoT's marke dly higher CPI forecasts seem not to consider strong policy relief measures.
  • We still expect some normalisation this year, even if inflation undershoots the revised inflation outlook.
  • Hiring in India perked up in Januar y, despite Omicron; expect a further fall in Q1 unemployment.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Mar 2022 The BSP has Just Made it Harder to Justify Normalisation This Year

  • The BSP raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 4.3%, which is too punchy, despite the stickiness in oil.
  • The bar for normalisation is higher than above- target CPI; second-round effects will matter more.
  • Thailand's exports rebounded respectably in February, but momentum is clearly ebbing from Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Mar 2022 The RBI is Unlikely to Fret about Rising Pump Prices, For Now

  • Pump prices in India are being allowed to play catch-up, with key local elections behind the BJP.
  • The RBI is unlikely to panic, though; oil disinflation still is likely in H2, and fuel taxes could fall further.
  • The more urgent issue is over the long run, as rising oil prices will further stoke inflation expectations.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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