EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February

• In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, February

• In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January

• In one line: First red ink since mid-2023, as the inexplicable lift from ‘other’ sales continues to unwind.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February

• In one line: The—small—surplus is consolidating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, February

• In one line: No need to panic over the nosedive in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, February

• In one line: Blame mainly softer fuel & power deflation; headline disinflation is just around the corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: February CPI & January IP, India

• In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Indonesia, January

• In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, February

• In one line: Dragged down by transportation and communication base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, January

• In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 February 2025

A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 February 2025

Indian services wake up from its slumber, but a Q1 GDP slowdown is still in play

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, January

• In one line: Deficit hit on both sides of the balance.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 February 2025

Thailand’s 2-speed economy ends 2024 on a somber note
A very unwelcome January leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 February 2025

Moderation in upstream food pressures in India is the real deal

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 February 2025

Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 February 2025

The RBI’s first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year
The impressive run-up in Philippine sales at end-2024 owes partly to short-lived tail

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2025

Everyone seems to have forgotten the Tet noise in Vietnamese trade
A more believable retail sales print from Vietnam, no doubt flattered by Tet
Healthcare costs provide Vietamese inflation with a further—much bigger—jolt
Thai inflation continues to float just a touch above the lower bound of BoT's target range

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 February 2025

Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia