EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, August

• In one line: Don’t let Delta-era base effects fool you.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: August IP & September CPI, India

• In one line: The RBI can’t seriously claim anymore that the economy “is holding up well”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, August

• In one line: The mid-year stagnation continues.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

• We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
• ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
• A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, August

• In one line: Exports are going from hero to zero in Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, August

• In one line: Case building for a pivot to smaller hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: July IP & August CPI, India

• In one line: Still lining up for an RBI pivot later this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26 August 2022

The slump in Thai exports intensifies

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Q2 was a Real Turning Point for the Revival in ASEAN Tourism

Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.

Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.

We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 August 2022

Consumers and inventories keep the Thai economy afloat in Q2

Non-traditional markets are now Indonesia’s best friends

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 August 2022

Filipino consumers abandoned ship in Q2 

Sales in the Philippines stabilised—somewhat—heading into Q3

The good times in Philippine semiconductors didn’t last long

Still waiting for a material acceleration in Indonesian retail sales

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2022

The RBI is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel more clearly

Consumers and trade drive Indonesia’s bumper Q2

Transport disinflation in Thailand is taking hold

Door ajar for yet another BSP rate hike later this month

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 August 2022

Indian services are coming back down to earth

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2022

ASEAN industrial momentum stabilised in July

A domestic-demand driven—and likely one-off—manufacturing bump in India

Food prices remain Indonesia’s main problem, but that doesn’t mean core inflation is no issue

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia