Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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April

28 July 2021 The SBV's Commitment Not to Devalue will be Easy to Keep

The risk of a trade spat between Vietnam and the U.S. has fallen further, following a deal on the dong... ...Which was built on goodwill and strategic aims, as Vietnam still...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)28th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

26 July 2021 Don't Expect Merchandise Trade to Give Thailand a Big Cushion in Q3

Export growth in Thailand surprised to the upside in June, but trade won't give as much support in Q3. The BoT's worries over Delta aren't backed by the mobility data, though...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

13 July 2021 Trade Growth in Indonesia has Peaked, but Expect a Stable Surplus

Indonesia's trade data for June, due on Thursday, probably will show that the surplus narrowed to about $2,000M, from $2,361M in May.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)13th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

12 July 2021 India's Policymakers are Worrying about the Wrong Inflation Drivers

India's CPI report today is likely to show that inflation slipped to 5.9% in June, following the bigger-than-expected surge to 6.3% in May.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)12th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

6 July 2021 Don't Get too Comfortable, Inflation in the Philippines will Resurge

Today's data are likely to show that CPI inflation in the Philippines slipped to 4.2% in June, after remaining stable at 4.5% since March.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)6th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

5 July 2021 ASEAN's Manufacturing Recovery is Fraying... Covid isn't All to Blame

Manufacturing in ASEAN hit a brick wall in June. The Markit PMI for the region fell sharply to 49.0, from 51.8 in May, marking the weakest print in eight months.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)5th Jul 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April 2021

In one line: Ignore the punchy headline; sales are see-sawing wildly.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Jun 2021 16:18Emerging Asia

15 June 2021 The Case for the RBI to Turn Neutral is Growing, but not Because of CPI

CPI inflation in India jumped to a six-month high of 6.3% in May, defying the consensus for a reacceleration within the RBI's 2%-to-6% target range.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

14 June 2021 Ignore the Headline; The Real Swing in Indian Industry has Yet to Begin

We're right at the end of silly season in India's economic activity data, as the astronomical 134.4% year-over-year spike in industrial production in April is as good as it gets.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, April 2021

In one line: Not much to celebrate, unless base effects are your thing.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)11th Jun 2021 15:23Emerging Asia

10 June 2021 The Philippines Won the Covid Battle--Not the War--in Q2

The Philippine economy looks miraculously to have survived the second wave of Covid-19 without any major scars. 

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

8 June 2021 Indonesia is Slowly Exiting Fiscal Stimulus, with an Eye on the Fed

Indonesia's government is starting to see the light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel, announcing last week that the  discounts for household electricity bills will end this...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)8th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

7 June 2021 Did the Reserve Bank of India Just Set the Stage for Normalisation?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously again on Friday to keep the policy repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)7th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

4 June 2021 Don't Take any Solace from the Modest Fall in India's PMIs

India's PMIs finally are starting to reflect the economic damage caused by the second virus wave and the local lockdowns imposed to control it.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)4th Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

2 June 2021 Don't Relax; India's Q2 will Hurt and the H2 Bounce won't be Emphatic

India's GDP report for the first quarter surprised to the upside, firming up to 1.6% year-over-year, from 0.4% in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)2nd Jun 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

26 May 2021 Below-Target Inflation is Yet Another Reason Why BI will Remain on Hold

Below-Target Inflation is Yet Another Reason Why BI will Remain on Hold

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th May 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

18 May 2021 Thailand's Q1 GDP Surprise is Far from Proof that it is Covid Secure

Thailand's Q1 GDP Surprise is Far from Proof that it is Covid Secure

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)18th May 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

17 May 2021 Demand in Vietnam will Face a 4th Virus Hit, but the Recovery is Safe

Demand in Vietnam will Face a 4th Virus Hit, but the Recovery is Safe

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)17th May 2021 00:10Emerging Asia

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