Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
- We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
- Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India slowed trivially in Q3, to 7.6%, but the flattery of discrepancies remains absurd.
- The drop in consumption growth is no one-off; finances are weakening and the credit binge is over.
- The impact of tightening is surfacing more clearly in M3, with cash growth down and deposit growth up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnam’s export recovery remains intact, heading into 2024
The contradictory headline rates aside, retail sales growth is clearly regaining momentum
No power price pop to see in November CPI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT finally hit pause yesterday after eight straight hikes, leaving the policy rate, at 2.50%...
- ...We continue to expect 50bp of easing next year; the Bank is behind the curve on GDP and CPI.
- Vietnam’s growth recovery is becoming more broad-based; we now expect Q4 GDP of 5.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PUBLIC SPENDING CAN’T RESCUE THE PH LONG TERM
- ...Q3 GDP AND OCTOBER CPI MAKE THE BOT LOOK FOOLISH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports and imports in October grew year-over-year—together—for the first time in 13 months.
- But downside risks to exports prevail, and oil effects are largely behind the return of import growth.
- Malaysian inflation cooled further to 1.8% in October, from 1.9%, dropping to a 29-month low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN is carrying the nascent recovery in Thai exports on its back
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
