- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S ROSY GDP HEADLINES REMAIN A FARCE
- ...BOT FINALLY PAUSES, WHILE BSP’S HEAD IS M.I.A.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The seven-month bout of WPI deflation in India comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI still isn’t showing any appetite for normalisation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q3 was better than Q2, but the headline continues to be flattered absurdly by statistical discrepancies.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
