Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.
- In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.
- The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
- WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
- The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it
- BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
- Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
- Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.
- The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
- …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
- Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.
Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling
- The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
- …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
- The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.
ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here
- Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
- …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.
- Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
- …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
- May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
- In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.
Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso
- Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
- …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
- Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.
BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS
- …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING
- Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
- ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
- Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
- …But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- Indian factories are hurting more from the war, but the worst of the bleeding in exports looks done…
- …Oil products will eventually respond to the price signal; Russian imports are a stop-gap for crude.
- We’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to a still-dovish 3.9% after correcting an error in our food-price tracker.
