15 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian retail sales enjoy a solid, if unsustainable, Ramadan jump

• Indonesia’s March retail sales report was flattered by Ramadan effects; beware the slide in confidence.
• Malaysian sales were also strong in March, at 6.6% year-over-year, suggesting strong Q1 consumption.
• Indian WPI inflation dropped to a 13-month low in April, thanks in large part to waning food pressures.

14 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Sub-3% inflation in India on the way, opening the door to more RBI cuts

• Indian inflation dropped to a 69-month low in April; we now see a terminal rate of 5.25% for the RBI.
• Below-average food inflation looks set to stay, with this year’s monsoon season expected to be fruitful.
• Note that CPI has yet to benefit fully from the slump in global oil prices, implying huge downward risk.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 May 2025

Huge bounce in Philippine imports masks a broad-based Q1 improvement

9 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' Q1 wasn't that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025

• GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
• …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
• Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2025

An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1

8 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "Liberation Day" pushes ASEAN's PMI off a cliff, but let's not panic yet

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
• …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
• We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2025

Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow

7 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Waning momentum should refocus BI more towards growth

• Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
• …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
• We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.

6 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A hot--if skin-deep--April CPI print in Indonesia; more of such to come

• Indonesian CPI came in above expectations in April, mainly reflecting the end of power discounts.
• The consensus for the Philippines’ Q1 GDP is well-positioned; we expect a similar-ish 5.8% print.
• The MAS is likely to ease policy further in July, but October could be more 50-50.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2025

Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February

• In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2025

Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade

April 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

FACTORY ASIA—EX-CHINA—IS DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

• …MORE CUTS TO COME FROM THE RBI AND THE BSP

1 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariffs spook the BoT to cut again, and lower its GDP outlook markedly

• The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
• …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
• Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

• In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.

29 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor US front-running huge for Thai exports in Q1, but offsets abound

• Thai exports continued to soar in Q1, on the back of US tariff front-loading, which leapt in March…
• …But their boost to GDP growth should be counter-balanced markedly by much more destocking…
• …While service exports likely will impose their first big drag post-Covid, given falling Chinese tourists.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 April 2025

Bigger US front-loading drives Thai export growth to a 3-year high

28 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Beware the durability of the ongoing upturn in India's PMIs

• India’s flash PMIs for April were solid, albeit backed seemingly by unsustainable export front-running.
• The year-over-year change in the PMIs still points to sub-6% GDP growth; a warning to rosy consensus…
• …The RBI’s consumer survey shows that the recovery in planned spending is starting to top out.

24 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor 2025 growth downgrades reveal BI's real longer-term anxieties

• Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
• …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
• India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.