27 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai exports have just US front-running to thank for the July beat

• Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
• Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
• Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 August 2025

India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, July

• In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.

22 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Recovery in India's PMIs finally entering a meaningful stage

• India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
• …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
• Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.

21 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more

• Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
• …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
• Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.

19 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply

• Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
• …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
• We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2025

US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

• EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
• …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
• We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

11 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits decade high in last month before tariffs

• Taiwan’s exports defied expectations in July, rising 42.0% after June’s already-high 33.7% growth.
• Consensus should have it just right for India’s July CPI; early-August data suggest this was the low.
• This week’s BoT meeting is ‘live’; we think the Bank will hold fire in spite of the majority view for a cut.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 August 2025

The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3

8 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' market-beating Q2 GDP doesn't stand up to scrutiny

• The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
• …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
• We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

7 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's hands not tied in October, when we expect one final 25bp cut

• The RBI stood pat this month, commendabl­y in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
• Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
• Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

6 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Two things stood out in Indonesia's Q2 surprise: one clear, one hidden

• Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
• …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
• The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

4 August 2025 Emerging Respite for ASEAN factories, but road ahead set to stay bumpy

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
• …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.

July 2025 Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING

• …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES