Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
- In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.
The April collapse in Philippine imports in context
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
- India’s decent April IP is not without its flaws; growth is now tanking at the margin…
- …This emerging softness is due to falling consumer non-durables, masked by flying capital goods.
- Blame seasonal noise for Thailand’s biggest trade deficit in over two years, but US demand is sliding.
- Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
- …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
- Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
- Bank Indonesia resumed easing, with a 25bp cut; the Q1 GDP letdown was even graver in actuality.
- The Board’s lower credit growth forecast is already looking too optimistic; we see 75bp more in cuts.
- US and ASEAN front-loading continues to mask weak Chinese demand for Malaysian exports.
- GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
- …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
- This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.
Pre-“Liberation Day” anxieties were there for all to see in Thailand’s Q1
Don’t panic about the continued ballooning of India’s trade deficit
- VND underperformance could look bad amid ongoing US trade talks, but the SBV’s hands are tied.
- Talk of a ‘crisis’ in Thai tourism is overblown; yes, Q1 was grim, but other big markets are struggling too.
- Singapore export growth easily beat expectations in April, though underlying trends are softening.
A larger-than-expected Ramadan bump in Indonesian sales that isn’t expected to last
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
