Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
- We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
- Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.
All clear for another BSP cut this month
- Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
- Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
- Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.
A bounce of sorts, but ASEAN manufacturing is still shaky
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
- In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.
The April collapse in Philippine imports in context
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
