PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2025

US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

• EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
• …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
• We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 August 2025

The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.