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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

10 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's new FM has a slightly easier hand; big questions remain

  • Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
  • …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
  • Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.

9 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More signs that Vietnam's US front-loading is over; Q2 still looking firm

  • Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
  • Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
  • The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.

8 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Criticism of India's Q2 GDP deflator is valid; 'GST 2.0' no game-changer

  • We’ve created our own GDP deflator for India; it suggests that growth collapsed in Q2, to just 5.8%…
  • …The fiscal cost of ‘GST 2.0’ is small, so expect the same for its macro impact amid fiscal consolidation.
  • Taiwanese inflation ticked up to 1.6% in August , from 1.5%, as typhoon Podul drove up food prices.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, August

  • In one line: Hit by a descent into outright food deflation.

5 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Confident BNM holds fire on further easing, following July cut

  • BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
  • ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
  • We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 September 2025

A more confident uptick in ASEAN manufacturing, with tariff clouds receding

4 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN factories have their heads more firmly above water, for now

  • ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
  • …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
  • But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.

2 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentals will help to buttress the IDR's stability in the short run

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
  • …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
  • Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 September 2025

Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August

1 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's punchy Q2 GDP only skin-deep; H2 will be a tale of two halves

  • India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
  • The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
  • We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q2

  • In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

  • In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 August 2025

Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, July

  • In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, August 2025

  • In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.

August 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP

  • …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER

29 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP hints strongly at end of cuts, but we're not in the "sweet spot" yet

  • The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
  • …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
  • We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.

27 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai exports have just US front-running to thank for the July beat

  • Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
  • Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
  • Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 August 2025

India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat

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