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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Real import demand in the Philippines has had a bleak Q3, so far
- Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
- …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.
- In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.
- Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
- Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
- The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.
- The RBI’s meeting on Wednesday is ‘live’, and we’re with the minority for a fresh 25bp rate cut.
- Indonesia’s final 2026 budget—that is, Mr. Purbaya’s first—reveals his less hawkish hand…
- …We’re more convinced now that the deficit will hit the 3%-of-GDP limit in 2026, given the rosy targets.
IGNORE INDIA’S ‘HOT’ Q2 GDP; Q3 SHAPING UP TO BE
MUCH MORE SOLID
- …FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA IS IN FLUX
Thai front-running to the US is now reversing
A soft-ish end to Q3, but Indian momentum is still largely improving
- India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
- …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
- Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.
- In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.
- The Philippines’ new anti-corruption drive in public projects is likely to stymie activity in the short run…
- …But needs must, as governance has been eroding, making Manila an even bigger laggard in the region.
- Malaysia's exports moderated in August, though we are still optimistic, considering the PMI data.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- In one line: Caused mainly by more moderate primary articles deflation; still tepid, overall.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
A robust start to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
A quiet start to Q3, but Philippine sales are still sliding
