Not definitive, but consistent with the idea that the trend is starting to rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Recovery in housing construction running out of steam.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint and a sustained recovery still looks some way off.
- April's pick-up in import prices likely will have a near-zero impact on core goods CPI inflation.
- The failure of housing starts and claims fully to reverse recent adverse shifts suggest interest rates are too high.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
- …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
- The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
- We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
- The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A clear signal of weakening consumption.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A broad-based slowdown, pointing to a 0.24% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Output still fell over Q1 as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core should fall a bit further over the summer, but 2% is likely the new trend.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A poorer start to Q2 than suggested by the already-soft headline rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The PBoC leaves the MLF rate unchanged, despite the April credit data dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
