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  • Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
  • Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
  • The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.

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Keywords for: 6 October 2025 China+ Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence