China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, February

Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come

• China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
• Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
• The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods

China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods trade-ins to prop up demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to hold off normalising rates until April

• BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
• Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
• ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 March 2024

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, February

In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, February

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, February

In one line:  Investors return to China’s stock markets in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's CPI bounces; upstream industries still see deflationary pressure

• China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
• By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
• We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development

• The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
• We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
• Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, January-February

In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 March 2024

Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks

China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 March 2024 China+ Monitor China exports more to emerging markets in January and February

• China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
• Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
• New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 March 2024: China sticks to targeted support

Premier Li confirms targeted stimulus only, as China reshapes its growth model; Tokyo inflation rises

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

6 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's PMIs suggest weak labour market undermines domestic demand

• The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
• ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
• Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4 March 2024

In one line: Korean PMI reports softer expansion in manufacturing activities

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

5 March 2024 China+ Monitor Korean working-day-adjusted export growth vigorous, due to chip upturn

• Underlying growth in Korean exports was stronger in February, adjusted for working-day differences.
• Surging demand for semiconductors drove exports higher, thanks to a sustained ICT upturn.
• The BoK will start lowering rates only in Q3, owing to inflationary pressure and household-debt risks.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, February

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 March 2024

China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Holiday spending buoys China’s services activity 

Japanese manufacturing still struggling 

Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, February

In one line: Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+