China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, December

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 JANUARY 2024

The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again

Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December

Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 January 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese Manufacturing Activity Continues to Flounder

• December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
• The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
• The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 January 2024 China+ Monitor China's Property Sector is Barely Making Progress

• Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
• Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
• A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

December 2023 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA PRIORITISES RESTRUCTURING OVER GROWTH
• - FALLING INFLATION SHOULD DELAY BOJ TIGHTENING
• - BOK WORRIED ABOUT HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, November

Japan’s inflation slows in November, thanks to easing food and core prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 DECEMBER 2023

Japan National CPI slows sharply in November as cost-push factors ease

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 December 2023 China+ Monitor Lumpy Exports of Vessels and Chips Drive Korean Shipments Higher

• Korea’s 20-day exports rose sharply in December on base effects, and jumps in vessel and chip exports.
• Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to recover, while shipments to the EU tanked.
• Any improvement in Korea’s exports hinges on how sustained the ICT rebound and China’s recovery are. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, December

Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 DECEMBER 2023

Korean 20-day exports accelerate on the back of base effects and lumpy shipments of hi-tech vessels and semiconductors

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 December 2023 China+ Monitor China Keeps Lending Rates Steady, As Fiscal Policy Is in the Driver's Seat

• The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
• Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
• Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, December

China keeps lending rates steady

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 DECEMBER 2023

China keeps lending rates steady; Japan's exports shrink for the first time in 3 months

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, December

The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 DECEMBER 2023

The BoJ stays put as inflation slows and currency pressure eases

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 December 2023 China+ Monitor BoJ Not Shifting Its Policy Stance As Inflation Slows

• The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
• Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
• The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November

• November data show China’s consumption demand stagnating as winter closes in.
• The headline jump in industrial output is misleading, driven by utilities and base effects.
• A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload proper ties.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, December

Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services activity rises

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 DECEMBER 2023: China remains at a low ebb

China's economy treads water in November; steeper existing home price fall points to market clearing
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services rise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 December 2023 China+ Monitor China's Government-Bond Issuance Supports Financing Data, Again

• China’s November financing data indicate weak credit demand outside government-bond issuance.
• Home demand is stronger than the headlines suggest, but the supply overhang is bigger too.
• The PBoC is likely to talk up inflationary expectations and provide more assertive liquidity support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+