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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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5 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Liquidity Trap is Creating All Sorts of Problems for the PBoC

  • The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
  • The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
  • The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+

15 June 2022 Yen Intervention Looks More Likely, but Limited to Damage Control

Renewed yen weakness has drawn policymaker attention, with markets on alert for intervention.

Fighting currency weakness, however, is difficult, and Japan has few tools available.

Policymakers will likely be limited to fighting a rearguard action, reducing volatility on the way down.

Craig BothamChina+

8 June 2022 The PBoC Remains Cautious, Despite the Push for Growth

China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.

We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.

The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.

Craig BothamChina+

24 May 2022 A Reprieve for Korean Exports, but Global Trade Probably won't Follow

Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.

The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.

The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence