Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Economic Monitor winter Fed

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 June 2021 The PMI Suggests PPI Inflation Likely Jumped Again in May

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 May 2021 Manufacturing PMIs Could Edge Higher this Month

Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

24 May 2021 China's Reopening Story Remains in Tact Despite Slow M1 Growth

Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

21 May 2021 Questions are Being Answered for China, but Some Remain

The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 May 2021 Exports are Softening, but a More Serious Correction is in the Cards

We are waiting for a step change in China's trade surplus, back down to pre-Covid levels, but the April data left us still holding our breath.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 May 2021 The Trade Surplus Likely Began a Downshift in April

One of the big questions facing the global economy is when the trade cycle will falter.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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