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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

wage Housing

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence