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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence