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The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.
Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.
Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.
Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.
The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.
Chinese exports rebounded in May on the back of the country’s reopening, post-Omicron.
A more muted recovery of import growth meant that the trade balance rose further into surplus.
We still expect a decline in the surplus this year, but policy is working hard to mitigate this.
China’s reopening sequencing favours exporters
Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.
We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.
Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.
Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us.
Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation.
Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.
The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.
The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.
Japanese exports slowed more than expected in April, thanks to China’s lockdowns.
The disruption to regional supply chains, stemming from factory closures in China, was also visible.
It is getting harder to argue that the yen’s weakness is a net positive, as imports ex-China climb higher.
Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
Zero-Covid supports China’s trade balance for a little longer
Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...
...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.
Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's trade surplus enjoyed a final lift in March, as import demand collapsed, and exports rose...
...But look through the seasonal distortions, and exports were weaker than they appeared.
Beijing has promised to offset some of the pain from zero-Covid, but stimulus looks light, to us.
Trade flows were weaker than they looked in March
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
China's FX reserves fell again in March, amidst reports of large portfolio outflows, thanks to Putin.
One by one, the key supports for the renminbi are being chipped away, and Q2 will be turbulent...
...but H2 will see a downward trend consolidate, as multiple headwinds force the RMB to submit.
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