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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

tokyo

29 Nov 2021 An Energy Boost Quickens the Pulse of Japanese Inflation

  • Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
  • The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26.11.21 An upside surprise for Tokyo CPI, a new Covid wave starts in China

Stronger inflation reflects global supply pressures rather than domestic demand

Zero Covid is struggling in the colder months, and will create a renewed service sector drag

Craig BothamChina+

1 Nov 2021 Japan Continues to Go its Own Way on Inflation

  • Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
  • ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
  • Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 29.10.21

Tokyo inflation lends credence to BoJ messaging

Another day, another injection, another last minute payment

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

  • A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
  • ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5.10.21

  • Japanese inflation lurches to life, but transitory factors still dominate

    Chinese property market stress spreads as another developer misses a dollar bond payment

    USTR leads with bark and no bite, for now

Craig BothamChina+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3.8.21

Still little sign of underlying inflation pressure.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, May 2021

In one line: Stability in the BoJ’s target measure belies crosscurrents

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28.5.21

Stability in the BoJ’s target measure belies crosscurrents.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence