9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Mar 2022 Weaker Chinese Profit Growth Heightens Political Risks

• Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
• ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
• Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Mar 2022 Winter's Chill Starts to Fade in China, but Spring Isn't Here Yet

• China's activity surveys were better than expected in February, and a touch of optimism is warranted...
• ...but should be freighted with caution, given holiday effects, and evidence that demand is still soft.
• Policy stimulus is feeding through, but stability is the watchword, not explosive growth.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Feb 2022 Ukraine, Energy Prices a Bigger Worry than Awkwardness for China

• Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
• ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
• Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Feb 2022 A Brief Lull, but Japanese Inflation will Soon Jump, Relatively Speaking

Craig BothamChina+

24 Jan 2022 Underlying Inflation Pressures are Already Fading in Japan

• Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
• Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
• External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

• The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
• Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
• Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

• China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
• The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
• We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

• Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
• Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
• Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

• The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
• An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
• The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

• Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
• Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
• Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

• Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
• Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
• The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

• Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
• A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
• Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

• Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
• Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
• We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

• The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
• ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
• ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

• No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
• The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
• Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

• A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
• The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
• Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+