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Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Chinese industrial profits bounced in June, linked to reopening and policy support.
The private sector, however, is still struggling, and the reopening boost is already fading.
We expect profits to fall again, as soon as July, with a downtrend set to last into 2023.
Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown.
Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak.
The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus.
Inflation is stabilising in Japan, after its April surge, and we do not expect much movement from here.
Yen weakness has partially reversed, thanks to U.S. data, easing the pressure on the BoJ.
Chinese industry is under pressure, particularly the private sector, and policy offers only limited support.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence