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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

services pmi

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 JULY 2022: China's back, but global trade is slowing

Inflation retreats unexpectedly in Japan

Korea points to slowing global trade

Korean manufacturing wobbles

Chinese manufacturing recovery confirmed

Craig BothamChina+

1 July 2022 A Proper Reopening Bounce for China in June

Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.

The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.

More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 JUNE 2022: A surprise bounce for non-manufacturing

The manufacturing recovery continues

But the real story is the surge in non-manufacturing

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 JUNE 2022: Japanese services and manufacturing continue to diverge

Manufacturing activity slowed again...

..while services continued to recover, but may be peaking

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

7 June 2022 The Metric Chinese Policymakers Care About Most is Yet to Recover

Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.

We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.

Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 JUNE 2022: Korean exports risk false hope for global trade

Korean exports surge on demand for energy

Few surprises from the Caixin PMI

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 MAY 2022: Chinese activity slowed further in May

Still shrinking, just more slowly

Manufacturing improves, but policy is falling short

Infrastructure stimulus still looks insufficient

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 MAY 2022: External factors weigh on Japanese activity

Manufacturing softens after April’s surprise bounce

Services inflation picks up, but without a labour market revival

Craig BothamChina+

12 May 2022 Food is Driving Up Chinese Inflation, but the Core Rate is Falling

Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.

Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.

The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.

Craig BothamChina+

6 May 2022 China's Labour Market is Under Increasing Pressure

The Caixin Services PMI plummeted again in April, as the zero-Covid vice tightened further.

The employment picture is darkening rapidly, and will be a major worry for policymakers.

We are still waiting for a material shift in policy, even so; announcements so far contain nothing new.

Craig BothamChina+

3 May 2022 Zero-Covid, Sub-Zero Growth, China's Economy Cratered in April

The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.

Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.

Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 02 MAY 2022: China weighs on regional activity

China weighs on Korean export growth...

…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI

Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 APR 2022: Chinese PMIs Plunge in April

The most disruptive outbreak since Wuhan weighs heavy on Chinese activity

Craig BothamChina+

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