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China’s PMIs for November show mounting economic pressure as Covid cases surge.
Supply-chain issues are nowhere near as bad as Q2, as local governments seek to target restrictions.
The services sector is suffering most from pandemic restrictions, though even construction is slowing.
The BoK hiked by 25bp, worried about inflation becoming entrenched.
Alongside the hike, however, the central bank also sounded a more dovish note.
The BoK is finally conceding the downside risks to growth, and we think the cycle has nearly peaked.
Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.
Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.
Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Markets have responded optimistically to news of a
Chinese property rescue fund...
...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.
The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.
Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.
The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.
Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.
Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.
The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.
More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.
Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.
The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.
Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese GDP shrank in Q1, thanks to Covid at home, and abroad, but should recover in Q2.
Both consumption and investment have scope for significant catch-up, aided by fiscal stimulus.
Chinese house prices fell again in April, as attempts at shoring up the sector struggle to find purchase.
The Caixin Services PMI plummeted again in April, as the zero-Covid vice tightened further.
The employment picture is darkening rapidly, and will be a major worry for policymakers.
We are still waiting for a material shift in policy, even so; announcements so far contain nothing new.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence