Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

sales data

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

  • Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
  • ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
  • We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

  • China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
  • Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
  • Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Oct 2021 Spillovers from China Add to Supply Chain Headaches for Japan

  • Japanese exports fell in September, due to a double whammy from China and supply problems.
  • Weaker demand from China was worsened by fac- tory closures, hitting exports of intermediate goods.
  • Cars, in particular, took a heavy blow from snarled supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

  • Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
  • Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
  • Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

  • Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
  • ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
  • Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

  • No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data.
  • Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now.
  • Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence