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Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.
China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.
Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.
China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.
Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.
The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.
China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...
...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.
Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.
Markets have responded optimistically to news of a
Chinese property rescue fund...
...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.
The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.
China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.
Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.
Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.
The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.
China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.
Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.
Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.
The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.
Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown.
Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak.
The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.
The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.
The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
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