Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rmb

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

  • Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
  • The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
  • Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

  • August was another bad month for China’s property
    sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
  • Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
  • More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Stimulus Efforts are Visible, but China's Liquidity Trap Still Binds

  • Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
  • Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
  • Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

  • Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
  • Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
  • The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Global Demand is Fading Fast, and China Won't Ride to the Rescue

Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.

China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.

Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Weak Credit Growth Highlights a Structural Problem for China

Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.

Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.

The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.

Craig BothamChina+

9 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Subsidies Shore up Chinese Exports, but Pressure is Building

China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...

...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.

Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.

Craig BothamChina+

27 July 2022 China+ Monitor China's Property Rescue Fund will not be a Cure-All

Markets have responded optimistically to news of a

Chinese property rescue fund...

...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.

The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

21 July 2022 China+ Monitor Monetary Policy Can't Save China, as Borrowers Go on Strike

China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.

Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.

Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

7 July 2022 Chinese Inflation will Climb, but the PBoC Won't React

Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.

Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.

The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.

Craig BothamChina+

28 June 2022 Chinese Profits Under Pressure, and Stimulus is Still Lacking

Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown. 

Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak. 

The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus. 

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

24 May 2022 A Reprieve for Korean Exports, but Global Trade Probably won't Follow

Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.

The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.

The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.

Craig BothamChina+

16 May 2022 A Change of Tune from the PBoC Amidst a Slump in Lending

The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...

...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.

The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence